Friday, 24 October 2008
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Election
I'm encouraged by this
http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard
But, made skeptical by the theft of the last two presidential elections, I remain pretty confident (if confident is appropriate in this context) that if the race is close it will be called for the Republican. Therefore, I've done my own little test of our exposure to fraud.
And it looks pretty good. If you add up all of the states in which Obama leads in this particular poll or conglomeration of polls (however they came up with the data) in which he leads by at least 10%, he gets 235 electoral college votes. And if you then add states in which he leads by at least 5 percentage points you get another 51, which would give him 286, enough to win. And then there are other states in which he leads but by a lesser margin, let's just assume the final unverifiable tally on those states will be for McCain. Still, it would be hard to steal it without it being a bit more obvious than in the past.
I'm just a little disappointed that GA, my adopted state is still going red, because even if the polls are faulty and completely misreading the turnout factor, we use those electronic no paper emminently hackable voting machines here, and if the results match the polls (which they will or they may even favor McCain more than the polls suggest), no one will question it.
I want my paper trail. And alternatively, or in addition to it, I want my exit polling.
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Comments (7)
Eh! there's going to be the claim of fruad by the losing party no matter wich side wins. kind of stuff happens every four years. Nothing new.
Doesn't matter anyway's looks like Obama's won this one.
@nidan - the difference is that (in recent years anyway) when the democrats claim fraud it's true, and when the republicans do it, it's a trick to try to commit fraud. see here
@loopdeloup - What I like about exit polls is that if they are done right, they are very accurate, because they only measure what people actually did or intended to do, and so it can serve as a check against manipulation that occurs after they voted. People could lie, but why would people do that? If you've got a big difference, that is an indication that something is wrong. I think the electronic machines should print out a ballot with your votes on it, and you can check it and then drop it in a box. That way if there are allegations of electronic fraud, you can go back to the paper backup and see if it confirms. You can do a recount!
@nidan - Dude - people don't believe that Gore and Kerry stole any elections. And even if they did believe that there is fraud on both sides, that doesn't make it true. Although I would like to believe we live in a democratic country, what is fact is not dependent on what the majority believes.
That said, a friend of mine who doesn't support Obama (yes I have those) told me to be careful what I wish for. To that I reply that I wish for fair elections, and that is all.